Why Russell Wilson is about to play 2021 on a reduction for Seahawks

Sure, that’s a clickbait title.

No, I don’t care you’re upset.

Easy truth is you’re studying this, which implies it labored so sit again and luxuriate in.

With that established, it’s potential to debate how with the 2020 NFL season within the rear view mirror, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hoisted the Lombardi trophy as league champions. By main the Bucs to victory, the legend of Tom Brady has added one more chapter, and the addition of a seventh Tremendous Bowl win additional separates Brady from the quarterbacks who’re anyplace even near him.

Brady’s greatness is related with the 2021 league yr set to start out in lower than 4 weeks on March 17, as one of many main points groups throughout the league are set to face is the affect of the COVID pandemic on the 2020 revenues, and the anticipated lower within the wage cap for 2021. For the Seattle Seahawks, that can imply needing to determine how you can create cap area within the coming weeks, as whereas at present lists the Hawks as having a projected $4.95M in area, that’s not a completely correct quantity.

First, that quantity solely consists of 47 gamers below contract, so as soon as the roster is constructed out to 51, it’ll characterize an addition of no less than $2.64M in cap prices even when solely minimal wage rookies are added to the roster (at $660k every). Add in a further $3M or so in cap prices related to the tenders which might be prone to be prolonged to unique rights free brokers and restricted free brokers, and rapidly Seattle is being within the crimson, even primarily based on the prediction of a cap set at $180M or $181M.

Now, it’s no emergency for a group to be over the cap, as groups can create cap area by means of a large number of how, and it simply comes all the way down to how precisely a group decides to create the area it wants. On the subject of the Seahawks, many haves have known as for quarterback Russell Wilson to take a reduction with a view to enable the group to place higher expertise round him. Lots of the calls have cited the “low cost” Brady supplied the New England Patriots over time, particularly proffering a Enterprise Insider article authored in March of 2020, which posits that Brady “sacrificed no less than $60 million in his profession”.

Now, I may go on and on in regards to the flaws within the evaluation carried out by Enterprise Insider and poke holes of their analysis of the low cost Brady acquired, however it’s an extended offseason and I’ll dig into the specifics of the alleged low cost sooner or later within the coming weeks. For now, I’m going to one to shrink back from dumping on poor analytical work, right here’s the methodology of that Enterprise Insider article (bolding added is mine):

We imagined a situation the place Brady signed new offers in 2005, 2009, 2013, and 2017 that had been the equal of the going charge for the highest quarterback on the time. In every of these 4 years, we gave Brady a brand new contract equal to that of the most important contracts for veteran quarterbacks that had been signed earlier than that season or the earlier season. We additionally imagined that Brady solely performed 4 seasons below every contract after which signed a brand new deal.

So, principally, they made up a situation the place Brady signed contracts at opportune instances. In actuality, Brady signed extensions in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 previous to changing into a free agent in 2020. So, beginning in 2010 Brady renegotiated each three years, somewhat than the 4 years the Enterprise Insider article “imagines” and on which they base their estimates.

For comparative functions, let’s take the identical methodology and “think about” a situation the place Wilson signed a contract extension each three years starting in 2015 and provides Wilson a contract equal to that of the most important contracts for veteran quarterbacks that had been signed earlier than that season or the earlier season. Right here’s how that appears primarily based on Wilson’s 2015 contract, which had him $100k per season beneath the very best paid participant within the NFL and his 2019 contract, which made him the very best paid participant within the league.

So, for reference the contract that can be used for comparative functions are the contract below which Aaron Rodgers performed from 2015 by means of 2017, then the Jimmy Garoppolo contract from 2018 by means of 2020 and the Patrick Mahomes contract from 2021 by means of 2023. Right here’s how, utilizing the identical methodology as above, Wilson’s low cost calculates.

Russell Wilson contract low cost by season

Yr Wilson Comp Comp Participant Wilson Low cost
Yr Wilson Comp Comp Participant Wilson Low cost
2015 $7,054,000 $22,000,000 Rodgers $14,946,000
2016 $18,542,000 $22,000,000 Rodgers $3,458,000
2017 $14,660,000 $22,000,000 Rodgers $7,340,000
2018 $23,786,000 $27,500,000 Garoppolo $3,714,000
2019 $26,286,000 $27,500,000 Garoppolo $1,214,000
2020 $31,000,000 $27,500,000 Garoppolo -$3,500,000
2021 $32,000,000 $45,000,000 Mahomes $13,000,000
2022 $37,000,000 $45,000,000 Mahomes $8,000,000
2023 $39,000,000 $45,000,000 Mahomes $6,000,000
Whole $229,328,000 $283,500,000 N/A $54,172,000

So, utilizing that methodology, Wilson is about to play 2021 on a reduction of $13M relative to the very best paid quarterback within the NFL, and by the point his present contract runs out, may have given the Seahawks a reduction of greater than $54M. Even excluding the 2015 season when he performed on the ultimate yr of his rookie contract, Wilson could be thought-about to have given a reduction of almost $40M over the eight years from 2016 by means of 2023, a median of $5M per season.

Is that “low cost” imaginary and utterly made up primarily based on the situation I “imagined”? Completely a hundred percent, and I deliberately did so with a view to illustrate how missing the methodology of the alleged Brady low cost of $60M really is. That stated, the important thing factor to remove is that Russell Wilson isn’t going to present the Seahawks a reduction, nor ought to he, as a result of he’s already set to play the 2021 season on a $13M low cost.

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